Thinkers’ Park

We have heard of prediction. But what about postdiction. Yes, you read it right. Curious to know, just read on.

According to critics of paranormal beliefs, postdiction (or post-shadowing or prediction after the fact) is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events.

Most predictions from such figures as John of Patmos, Nostradamus and James Van Praagh are deliberately written in a such a vague and ambiguous way as to make interpretation nearly impossible before the event, rendering them useless as predictive tools. After the event has occurred, however, details are adapted into the prediction by the psychics or their supporters using selective thinking – emphasize the “hits”, ignore the “misses” – in order to lend acceptance to the prophecy and give the impression of an accurate “prediction”. Inaccurate predictions are simply not mentioned.Supporters sometimes contend that the problem lies not with the wording of the prediction, but with the interpretation[citation needed] – an argument sometimes used by supporters of religious texts.

Postdiction might be applicable if the prediction was:

1. Vague : The prediction makes a non-specific claim like disaster of some kind. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events.
2. Open ended : The prediction has a very long cut-off date or none at all and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus’ quatrains are open-ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events.
3. Recycled : The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event
4. Catch-all : The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle’s answer as to whether Crœsus should attack the Persians: If you attack you will destroy a mighty empire. Crœsus attacked and thereby destroyed his own empire.
5. Statistically likely : The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries, or religious festivals.
6. Unavailable until after the fact : A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who “predicted” that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials “J.H.”. The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt.

So what are you predicting now? Or Postdicting is it?

Mohan Rao.

Where there is great doubt, there will be great awakening; small doubt, small awakening, no doubt, no awakening.
- Zen Proverb